Ms Jessica Sweeney¹, Dr Gary Brassington²

¹Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Australia, ²Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, Australia

Uncertainty in the ocean state is a risk factor for marine activities. Most mesoscale numerical guidance consists of a single deterministic forecast, with little indication of forecast confidence. This leaves marine decision-makers to assess uncertainty using more ad hoc qualitative approaches through previous experience or comparison with a range of information sources that may suffer from sample size or inhomogeneity issues.

Ensemble forecasting – prevalent in atmospheric prediction but still emerging in ocean equivalents – offers a way to quantify uncertainty and provide probabilistic guidance on the range of possible outcomes. The next generation of operational ocean models will be capable of generating ensemble forecasts at eddy-resolving resolutions, presenting both significant challenges and opportunities.

This presentation will describe ocean ensemble forecasting and its benefits, including potential applications for various marine industries. It will also outline the Bureau of Meteorology’s plans for ocean ensembles, and the ways in which interested stakeholders can engage and participate during its development, demonstration and evaluation stages.

Biography:

Jessica Sweeney is an ocean and marine weather specialist at the Bureau of Meteorology. She wears a multitude of hats including ocean forecast verification for Energy & Resources customers, as well as research into ocean ensemble skill, and ocean product development.