Operational marine heatwave prediction from weeks to months to seasons
Grant Smith*1, Claire Spillman1, Alistair Hobday2, Jason Hartog2
1Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia.
2CSIRO Environment, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia.
* Correspondence:
Grant Smith
grant.smith@bom.gov.au
Above average ocean temperatures leading to marine heatwaves have implications for many marine ecosystems and industries. The impacts felt include mass coral bleaching and mortality, altered aquaculture yields, changes in wild fish migration patterns, and marine ecosystem deterioration. Impacts are primarily related to marine heatwave severity and duration. Seasonal forecasts of marine heatwave risk covering timescales from weeks to seasons from dynamical ocean-atmosphere models can be very useful tools for marine managers, businesses and researchers. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal forecast model ACCESS-S2 currently produces operational real-time forecasts of sea surface and subsurface temperatures. In partnership with CSIRO, marine heatwave metrics such as and probabilities of exceeding the 90th percentile derived from subseasonal to seasonal forecasts have been developed and slated to become operational in late 2025. These new products will complement existing operational accumulated thermal stress forecast products developed for coral bleaching to improve both the understanding and the management of MHW events.
Biography:
Dr Grant Smith is an oceanographer for the Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) and Research section of the Bureau of Meteorology. He is primarily involved with marine seasonal forecasting for sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales for both Australia and the Pacific, as well as wave modelling.
