Dr Stefan Zieger¹

¹Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology produces deterministic and ensemble forecasts for numerical weather prediction (NWP). Operational wave forecast (AUSWAVE) is limited to global deterministic forecast. The current system is not yet able to provide detailed information in coastal areas and is unable to estimate uncertainties in wave forecasts. Ensemble modelling can objectively estimate uncertainty and add confidence to high-resolution deterministic forecast systems. Global ensembles are of interest here because they can elegantly estimate uncertainties in the wave field across long fetches and offers uncertainty estimates in swell heights and swell arrivals. To close these gaps, two complementary wave modelling system have been developed: (i) a national variable-resolution coastal wave forecast system and (ii) a global wave ensemble system. The wave ensemble model is driven by the Bureaus operational NWP ensemble and consists of 17 members with a spatial resolution of 1/4°. This talk will give an overview of the variable resolution national coastal wave forecast system and the global wave ensemble system. Initial results and verification will be presented.

Biography:

Stefan Zieger is a Senior Research Scientist in the Research Program and is the wave modelling lead at the Bureau of Meteorology. His interests include numerical modelling, wave verification, and wave climate.